THE AFRI’COUP UNION | The Worrisome Resurgence and Rampancy of Military Takeovers in Africa

By Sonny Mncedisi Dube

A coup according to Powell and Thyne in a 2011 article published in the Journal of Peace Research is “an illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.” They also asserted that a successful coup lasts at least one week.

Abstract

Whilst elections do come and go, they are not merely the most preferred but also one of the few lawful and peaceful mechanisms of political power transfer in modern democracies. An election is preferred because it carries the will of the people or it at least is intended to do so. In Africa and everywhere else in the world allegations of rigging and electoral irregularities have been levelled, election results challenged and presidential challenges rerun but it must be submitted that whilst the electoral process is not a flawless one it at least remains an ideal mechanism of power transfer in an ideal democracy. Military takeovers on the other hand are in addition to being undemocratic, illegal and constitute an act of treason in almost all jurisdictions. A coup d’état as it is technically known is not only synonymous with but also harbours dictatorial tendencies and it is in the literal sense an enemy of democracy. Recently there has been an alarming rate of coups and coups attempts in Africa, and ironically the civilians seem to always celebrate when their democratically elected leadership is toppled by the military. The African Union and the regional blocks’ responses to coups has not been sufficient, in other words these organisations have stood as toothless dogs barking at bay.

A Brief Statistical Background of Coup D’états in Africa

In the wake of decolonization military takeovers of political power in Africa were in the second half of the 20^th century seen as a common mechanism of political transition. As democratization trends dawned on Africa in the late 90s and in the leap into the 21^st century, coups became unpopular but nevertheless did not disappear on the African continent. According to data collected by U.S. researchers Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne at the University of Central Florida and the University of Kentucky respectively, out of 54 countries on the African continent, 45 have had at least one coup attempt since 1950. The data from the aforesaid researchers also show that of the 486 attempted or successful coups carried out around the world since 1950, Africa has seen 214, the most of any region, with 106 of them successful.

Powell and Thyne’s data reveal that Sudan tops the list as the African country with the most coups both attempted and successful since the year 1950, with 17 in total and the data has further revealed that six of those were successful, including the most recent one last year in October. Burkina Faso on the other hand has the highest number of successful coups, with eight, including January’s coup. In addition to the most recent putsch, coups were successfully carried out in Burkina Faso in the years 1966, 1974, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987 and 2014.  Nigeria had a long history of coups following its independence in 1960, with eight coup attempts and six of them successful.

With a total of four (4) successful military coups in Africa recorded in the past year in 2021 which transpired in these respective countries namely Mali, Sudan, Chad, Guinea and recently one in Burkina Faso this year, it is clear that there is a resurgence of the past despicable trend of the military’s encroachment into politics. Whilst the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has condemned the recent fashion of military takeovers in Africa and the world at large calling it “an epidemic” of coups, more often than not coups seem to enjoy a warm welcome from the citizens of those countries in which a putsch would have taken place. Is the peoples’ embrace of coups an act of desperation or the military is really a savior of the peoples?

Failure of Democracy to Yield Fruits is leading to Celebrations of Coups to No Avail.

A common denominator factor in Africa which the masterminds of military coups have always used to justify their intervention into national politics is incompetence, corruption and poor governance. This has been the chief reason behind one sobering fact which is that the civilians seem to always embrace the ouster of their leadership by the military.  The African Union Peace and Security Council in 2014 emphasized the fact that unconstitutional changes of government often originate from “deficiencies in governance” along with “greed, selfishness, mismanagement of diversity, mismanagement of opportunity, marginalization, abuse of human rights, refusal to accept electoral defeat, manipulation of constitution[s], as well as unconstitutional review of constitution[s] to serve narrow interests and corruption.” Some of these military coups are prompted by protests caused by frustration against poverty, poor governance and corruption. This has been true for most countries including Mali where the coup took place after nationwide protests against President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s government who was accused of nepotism, corruption and failure to curb the country’s security crises.

The coup leaders usually struggle with legitimacy after seizing power which is why they hijack the desperate and unsuspecting frenzied mass protests against the aforementioned vices of misgovernment. In Guinea, September 2021 the coup leaders justified their takeover with multiple reasons including concerns about corruption and a failing economy, the fact that deposed President Alpha Conde had tempered with the constitution to allow him to serve a third term. There is a disconnection and distrust between the populace and its leadership everywhere in the African continent. Democratically elected leadership has long failed to deliver the milk and honey that it promises during election campaigns, political propaganda which would have swayed the electorate to entrust its future and its dreams with the same. The military therefore preys on an already frustrated crowd for legitimation of its shenanigans.

This can be said to be true for the Malian populace who took to the streets in celebration of the military’s seizure of power from the civilian government. Another perfect example of how the legitimacy of the militarisation of politics drinks from the frustrations of the masses is Zimbabwe’s 2017 military movement that led to the resignation of the late nonagenarian Robert Mugabe. The masses having been fed up with Mugabe’s protracted dictatorship that spanned for over three decades, flocked out in the streets in protest and the military ushered in new leadership with ease as the populace was on its side. The military usually chips in as the messiahs against dysfunctional leadership but are they really saviours? The masses’ celebration of coup d’états is to no avail as the military never turn out to be the supposed guarantors of peace and prosperity as they would have promised. The military turns to be far much worse than the leadership that it toppled, the socio-political situations in almost all countries that have experienced coups deteriorates to a stinking state than it was before. Most post-coup regimes are still wailing in poverty and economic turmoil even long after decades of transition.

History has taught well that one coup paves way for more coups and according to US researcher Jonathan Powell countries experiencing ongoing terrorism campaigns and insurgency are also disproportionately more likely to see coups and as well as those nations whose leaders lack legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens or armed forces. In addition, a closer look at the trend of these putsches reveals that richer countries such as South Africa and Botswana have never experienced coups hence it leaves one to conclude that that poorer countries and those with less stable democracies have historically been more prone to military takeovers.

The Afri’coup Union or the African Union

The African Union recently held its 35^th annual summit on which it discussed issues including the COVID-19 pandemic, hunger and nutritional concerns on the continent, and of course the wave of coup d’états that has engulfed Africa so drastically it has tainted its image. As a consequence of recent coups, the AU suspended four (4) member states that is Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Sudan in a space of 18-months and the first three have also been suspended from ECOWAS a regional body to which they are members. The aforesaid statistical figures speak to the fact that most coups have been recorded in Africa than in any other continent in the world and every leader at the recent summit unequivocally condemned the current plague of military coups. Whilst the African Union is not entirely to blame for the belligerency, it must be submitted that the toothless response that it has over the years shown to military coups has created fertile ground for more military takeovers. The African Union as has been seen over the years and more recently in Mali, Sudan, Guinea and Burkina Faso, usually rely on sanctions and suspensions as mechanisms to deal with military takeovers but nevertheless these measures are not sufficient to discourage would-be coup masterminds. The lack by the African Union of punitive measures encourages militaries across the continent to be inspired to encroach the politics of their countries with the ultimate guarantee that there are no grave consequences for ousting the prevailing leadership.

Stephen Buchanan-Clarke a South African security analyst in a televised interview with Newzroom Africa TV submitted that the sanctions which African Union often resorts to as a punitive mechanism are rarely felt by the military leaders but rather tend to adversely the civilians as has been seen several times and mostly in Mali.

The African Union has also been accused of inconsistency in responding to military takeovers, the fact that Chad was not suspended after a militarily-born transition that elevated General Mahamat Idriss Deby to the presidency that after his father Idriss Deby perished in an internal conflict, whilst Mali was suspended for its coup is testimony of such bias. More clearly the AU despite having suspended Egypt for the Abdel Fattah El-Sisi led coup in 2014, it later restored Egypt’s membership with El-Sisi five (5) years later becoming its rotational chairman. This is to mention just a few amongst many cases of inconsistency and it is strongly submitted that the African Union’s distaste for acts of unconstitutionality must be consistent and unbiased, all coups must be unequivocally condemned and in addition to being reprimanded there must be real consequences for coup leaders so as to instil deterrence. With the statistics of military takeovers on the rise and with the Africa Union’s diluted and ambivalent attitude towards silencing the blazing guns on the continent, it runs a risk of becoming what this author has colloquially named “The Afri’coup Union”

The African Union must therefore be alarmed that not only is democracy under a serious threat in the continent, but also peace and security hence it must work tirelessly and timeously to arrest the militarisation of politics that have seen a startling statistic in coup d’états in such a short space of time. The AU can in addition to putting in place relevant institutions to tackle this vice, work closely with regional bodies such as the SADC, ECOWAS to come up with proactive mechanisms to best curb militarised politics that seem to be engulfing the continent in world’s watch.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sonny Mncedisi Dube is a blogger who writes in his personal capacity

sonnymncedisi@gmail.com

0718533598

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